Plinko Odds & Probability
This calculator shows each slot’s probability, payout multiplier and theoretical RTP for our Standard Plinko model. It calculates the chances without running drops. These results do not describe our Classic physics board or a specific casino game.
Your configuration
Target RTP is the value you choose. Theoretical RTP is calculated from the actual multipliers, so it can differ slightly.
The profit and loss percentages show the chances for a single drop, not for the whole session. A winning drop returns more than your bet; a losing drop returns less. A 1× payout returns exactly your bet.
Chances of landing in each slot
A taller bar means the ball is more likely to land there. Slots are shown from left to right, just like the board.
Same probabilities. Different payouts. With the same number of rows, Risk and Target RTP change the multipliers, not the chances of reaching each slot. Changing the multipliers can change the chance of a payout above 1×. Compare playing choices in Plinko Strategy.
Chances of a larger return
For 2× or more, we add the chances of all slots paying at least 2×. Only results available with your settings are shown.
Payouts and chances for each slot
Slots run from 0 at the left edge. Scroll horizontally for expected hits and RTP contributions; the slot column stays visible. Fractions show the exact probabilities. Percentages may be rounded for display. The multipliers shown are the values used for payouts.
| Slot | Multiplier | Exact probability | Probability | 1 in N | Hits / 100 | Hits / 1,000 | Hits / 10,000 | RTP contribution |
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Expected hits are averages, not guaranteed counts. “1 in N” describes frequency, not a countdown. RTP contributions are percentage points of the total return.
How these odds are calculated
Why are center slots more likely?
Every time the ball reaches a peg, it can move left or right. In our model, both directions have the same chance: 50/50.
If you choose 8 Rows, the ball makes 8 of these decisions. With 12 Rows, it makes 12. With 16 Rows, it makes 16.
The slots at the bottom do not all have the same chance. Many different paths can lead to the center, while only a few paths lead all the way to the edges. That is why center slots are reached more often and edge slots are much rarer. For a specific casino example, see the rarity of Stake’s 10,000× outcome; this calculator uses a different model.
For example, with 8 rows, reaching the far-left slot requires 8 left turns in a row. That is 1 of the 256 equally likely paths. A center slot can be reached through many different combinations of left and right moves.
How does this become RTP?
Every slot has a payout multiplier, such as 0.5×, 1×, 2× or another value.
We know how often the ball is expected to reach each slot and how much that slot pays. Multiply each slot’s chance by its multiplier and add the results. This gives the expected multiplier: the average multiplier calculated from all possible results and their chances. It is not a prediction of your next drop. Multiply that average by 100 to get RTP (Return to Player) as a percentage.
See how theoretical return compared with game results in our Plinko RTP study.
A 100% RTP means that over a very large number of drops, the mathematical model is expected to return the same total amount that was wagered. It does not mean that someone who bets $100 will get exactly $100 back. A single session can finish well above or below the theoretical average. Compare the same saved drops at different settings in our Plinko RTP session study.
Our WYL demo supports Target RTP from 80% to 120%, with a default of 100%. The displayed payout multipliers use at most one decimal place. The theoretical RTP shown above is calculated from the actual table, rather than copied from the target.
This is the same mathematical model used in our Free Plinko game and Plinko Simulator. Real casino versions of Plinko can use different multipliers and a different RTP.